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Feature Article #1

The Difference Between a Real Estate Recovery and Stopping The Flow of Blood

An interview with Chip Case, founder of the Case-Shiller Report, has a great obeservation of the housing market I thought I would share this morning.
“We have to distinguish between a recovery, and stopping the flow of blood,” clarified Case. “We’ve had falling house prices for quite a while, and now have four to five months [...]

Tom Royce | December 29th, 2009 | Continued

Feature Article #2

Healthcare Bill has Provision That Punishes Small Builders

Imagine that every small business under 50 employees had to obey one set of rules. Then one group has to burden a greater cost while living under a separate rulebook. This is what the United States Senate has done to small builders with 5 or more employees.
In every other small business in America health insurance will have [...]

Tom Royce | December 21st, 2009 | Continued

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Feature Article #3

The Top 10 Least Happy States To Live In

Ever wonder why everyone around you is grumpy and mad? Check your zip code. A new study shows the levels of happiness by state. The New York metro area leads the way with New York as the most unhappiest state to live in followed by Connecticut and New Jersey.
The Northeast and the Midwest dominate the [...]

Tom Royce | December 18th, 2009 | Continued

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Feature Article #4

Need To Finance A Whorehouse, See ACORN For Advice

A conservative videographer and his girlfriend went to the Maryland and Washington DC ACORN offices acting as a pimp and a prostitute looking to finance a whorehouse with ACORN’s help. What is amazing at these 2 offices the counselors gave them advice on how to do so and fake the income and tax form requirements [...]

Tom Royce | September 11th, 2009 | Continued

Feature Article #5

Why We Might See Another Housing Slowdown if FHA Loans Blow Up

When the mortgage companies were writing loans to anyone with a pulse, you rarely saw an FHA loan being written. Even in 2006 only 2.7 percent of loans were FHA.
But when credit tightened and lenders backed away a funny thing happened. FHA loans skyrocketed up to 23 percent in the second quarter  of 2009. All is well [...]

Tom Royce | September 5th, 2009 | Continued

About this Site

I started The Real Estate Bloggers in 2005 when real estate was at it’s peak. The site has followed the industry from the highest heights to the deepest lows. We have strived to bring a reasoned analysis of the real estate industry for both professionals, pundits, buyers and sellers, voyeurs, and those just curious.
We thank [...]

Other Recent Articles

Rental Scams on Craigslist – Landlords Beware

Thief2If you thought the scams being run on Craigslist were just on ripping off prospective tenants as we talked about before here, you are missing the other side of the coin. Landlords are in just as much danger.

The new scam involves renters sending fake cashiers checks and money orders. The landlord is thrilled to receive the money, deposits it, and then something happens to blow up the deal. It is not until the landlord has refunded the money do they find out that the cashiers check was fake and they are on the hook to return the money.

The scam artist is long gone before the landlord finds this out.

The ICC continues to receive complaints about potential renters who have written counterfeit checks to cover deposits only to back out of the agreements and ask for refunds, investigators say.

In another common ruse, scammers duplicate legitimate real estate postings, often using the brokers’ real names, but re-post the ads using fake e-mail addresses.

When potential renters or buyers request information via e-mail, the owner asks them to send money. Sometimes, the scammers claim they are doing missionary work and the money is sent to destinations in foreign countries, investigators say.

More at  Mlive.com.

If you are a landlord and have come across one of these scams, put the email in the comments. The previous post for tenants has saved many families thousands of dollars and many headaches by helping each other out.

And if you have been ripped off, file a complaint here with the IC3.

Thanks

Spring Real Estate Talking Points – An Article Full of Positives

SmileyfaceYou and I both know that this site has taken a tough look at the real estate market. I think it has been objective, but I am sure that others will disagree.

My perspective has always been from the consumers point of view, not the industries. As such, I am concerned how the real estate industry best serves the consumer and looks out for their needs while providing interesting and pertinent information for the professionals.

On that note…

I found this compendium article at Business Week that is essentially a talking point list for those in the industry that need positive things to say.

Use it as you see fit.

Here are the key points I dredged out that can be used to motivate a buyer…

  • “I would bet even odds that we’re at a bottom and that we’re going to see improvement in the coming months,” said Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and a professor of economics at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts.
  • “When people get jobs, that’s when they move or decide to buy a bigger house,” he said.
  • “The underlying trend is turning positive,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.
  • “This is an important step in the right direction,” Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, and his colleagues wrote in a report to clients last month. Mortgage originations for the purchase of a home will rise to $745 billion this year and $822 billion next year, the highest since 2008, from $740 billion in 2009, according to forecasts from the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • The average household had 177.8 percent of the income needed to purchase a property in January, the highest since a record 184 percent in April 2009, when mortgage rates tumbled to 4.78 percent, according to data from the Realtors’ association.
  • “We don’t anticipate a massive widening of spreads once the Fed stops buying,” he said. “It will be a few basis points here and there.” As a result, he sees mortgage rates remaining “about where they are now.”
  • “If we get a rebound, you could see excess supply disappear very quickly,” Lawler said.
  • “The underlying trend in home sales is for gradual improvement,” Maki of Barclays Capital said. “While activity will remain at low levels for some time, the housing bust is essentially over.”

If you have been looking for positive talking points here they are. All I ask is that you use them for good and not evil.

 Good luck out there in the spring selling season!

You have been armed.

The Foreclosure Tsunami That No One Is Talking About

TsunamiIf you are working in the real estate business this sentence should scare the hell out of you.

About 5 million to 7 million properties are potentially eligible for foreclosure but have not yet been repossessed and put up for sale.

It scares me. This overhang is so big the rounding error is 2 million homes.

Think about it, the Washington Post where I got this quote from can only pinpoint it to an approximation of 2 million homes.

I hope you are saying phrases in the back of your head you would not want your minister to hear.

This is why I and so many others who follow the industry are scared. We have created an environment where the government, the banking industry, and the real estate cartel have all tried to ignore this problem to stabilize the market.

YET THE PROBLEM HAS NOT GONE AWAY.

It has gotten worse. Much worse.

Until the overhang of potential foreclosures is fixed the real estate market will not fully recover.

We are all blowing smoke until then if we tell people that the recovery is right around the corner.

We need to clean up the mess first, not shove it into a closet where we think no one will see it, and then we can invite people in to look at the house.

That will be the day the real estate industry gets it’s credibility back.

About 5 million to 7 million properties are potentially eligible for foreclosure but have not yet been repossessed and put up for sale. Some economists project it could take nearly three years before all these homes have been put on the market and purchased by new owners. And the number of pending foreclosures could grow much bigger over the coming year as more distressed borrowers become delinquent and then, if they can’t obtain mortgage relief, wade through the foreclosure process, which often takes more than a year to complete.

As these foreclosed properties add to the supply of homes for sale, they could undercut housing prices, which have increased modestly through December, according to the most recent figures in the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index. That rise partly reflected a slowdown in the flow of foreclosed homes onto the market. via The Washington Post

Top 10 Cities For Tornado Activity

TornadoI don’t know about you but I hate tornadoes. Seriously.

So it does not warm my heart to realize I live between the 2nd worst and the 9th worst cities in the country for tornado activity. Ugh…

Give me a hurricane any day of the week. You know you are going to get clobbered with a hurricane but you have time to prepare. But a tornado is like a doberman. You know there is a chance he will turn on you, but you are never sure when or how it will get you.

That being said, here are the

Top 10 Cities For Tornado Activity

RANK

CITY

ACF (%)

DISTURBED LAND AREA (ACRES)

1

Little Rock, AR

0.02453

197

2

Atlanta, GA

0.02369

191

3

Indianapolis, IN

0.01852

149

4

Birmingham, AL

0.01748

141

5

Macon, GA

0.01683

135

6

Jackson, MS

0.01360

109

7

Shreveport, LA

0.01169

  94

8

Montgomery, AL

0.01016

  82

9

Columbus, GA

0.00901

  72

10

Columbia, SC

0.00889

  71

via Raycom Weather

CitiGroup Selling Real Estate Division to Apollo

CitigroupA sign that the big banks are focusing on core fundamentals and not esoteric investments happened today. Citigroup is selling their Citi Property Investors division to Apollo Management. The reasons for the sale are 2 fold. One, these investments are tanking. They are not performing and are a drag to the company. Better to divest them while the company is underwater and still has government investments in it.

The other reason is that big pappy, the federal government and 27% owner of the company, told them to get rid of assets. And when big pappy speaks, you listen. Of course, this subverts our whole economic system when the political arm directly injects itself into the business of business. But, who cares anymore, right?

All I do know is the timing was right for Apollo to buy. Even if the market still goes down, all the factors in the deal point to a bad deal being made by Citigroup. They were told to sell an asset, they did, and they have cover if the deal is bad.

Such is life in the new America…

The inclusion of Citi Property Investors to Apollo’s portfolio will more than triple the private equity firm’s real estate assets, the agency said. City Property Investors’ portfolio includes 65 investments in 26 countries with a net asset value of $3.5 billion, according to the agency. Apollo signed a letter of intent and the deal may take as long as three months to close, the agency said.

The U.S. government stepped in to prop up Citigroup at the height of the financial crisis in October 2008 when officials at the U.S. Treasury feared the bank’s crumbling financial condition could destabilize financial markets worldwide.

On March 4, Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit told a congressional panel that he had sold off many proprietary trading businesses, including the Phibro energy trading unit, and was focused on trading services for clients. via Reuters

New Federal Short Sale Program Offers Little To Everyone

Upside-down-houseAnother week, another tepid swing of the bat by the White House to fix the housing crisis before the midterm elections.

If you are short of time this is as succinct an analysis as I could offer on the new Federal Short Sale Program offered by the White House to fix the foreclosure problems plaguing the country.

The trillion dollar foreclosure program will not be fixed by any band-aid or government program. The notion that we can fix systemic problems that took years to create overnight by a program or two is crazy, but it seems that Washington thinks this is the way to do it. All this does is perpetuate the problem and draw it out.

Here is the analysis by the NY Times:

The problem is highlighted by a routine case in Phoenix. Chris Paul, a real estate agent, has a house he is trying to sell on behalf of its owner, who owes $150,000. Mr. Paul has an offer for $48,000, but the bank holding the mortgage says it wants at least $90,000. The frustrated owner is now contemplating foreclosure.

To bring the various parties to the table — the homeowner, the lender that services the loan, the investor that owns the loan, the bank that owns the second mortgage on the property — the government intends to spread its cash around.

Under the new program, the servicing bank, as with all modifications, will get $1,000. Another $1,000 can go toward a second loan, if there is one. And for the first time the government would give money to the distressed homeowners themselves. They will get $1,500 in “relocation assistance.”

Now let’s be serious for a brief moment and look at this situation realistically. A bank that is seeing a short sale and is upside down on the offer by $101,000 is now going to throw manpower it does not have to earn an extra $1,000?

Have these folks on Washington not waited on the phone for Bank of America’s mortgage guys to answer? You have to be kidding me.

The difference between reality on the streets and the ideology in Washington is getting further and further apart. And the sad thing is, if Washington had kept out of the process we would have had a market by now. The short term pain would have been greater but there would be hope for the future.

Now all we have is death by a thousand paper cuts.

Cash-In Refinancing Gaining in Popularity

MoneyhousescaleDo my eyes deceive me? Is America slowly climbing out of the debt cycle that has come close to choking it in recent years. (ed. For everyone but the government it has…) The American consumer is shying away from home equity loans and cash out refinancing on their mortgages and are now bringing money to the table when they are refinancing their mortgages.

The deleveraging of America is happening right before our eyes and for some it is welcome news. Of course, there is a consequence to this, the money that was coming out was keeping our economy humming. Think about it for a second. If money is being saved it is not being spent creating jobs and buy “stuff”.

But the irrational purchasing during the past decade may have kept employment high and businesses humming, it was still an artificial bump. The consumers bringing money to the table to refinancing their mortgages is a great example. They will be able to save on costs like Private Mortgage Insurance and have the opportunity to qualify for lower mortgage rates.

The savings on these cost will provide a more disposable income for families, income that will not be predicated on debt that must be re-payed down the line.

America is wising up…

Now the pendulum in consumer psychology appears to be swinging toward reduction of household debt — whether on credit cards or mortgages.

In Freddie Mac’s latest quarterly survey of refinancings, 33% of homeowners put cash into the deal to lower their mortgage balances, the highest percentage ever. By contrast, only 27% of refinancers took cash out — the lowest percentage on record.

Why shift money from savings into your house? Nothaft says a small percentage of refinancers — including himself and his wife — traditionally have preferred to lower their mortgage balances whenever possible.

There are at least two key rationales for doing so, Nothaft says. No. 1: If interest rates are low and you’re getting minuscule returns on your bank savings or money market funds, paying down your home loan may well provide you a better return on your investment. via the LA Times

Does Residential Real Estate Market Face a Double Dip?

Forsale2There is concern that the residential real estate market could be facing the dreaded double dip. To those who are not stock market mavens this essentially means that the short recovery we have seen will be followed by another downturn.

The idea was brought up by Brian Taylor of the hedge fund Pine River. And it does align with my observations.

We had a slight uptick in the market in the 4th quarter of the year. This coincided with tremendous incentives offered by the Federal Government for new home buyers. Essentially the government subsidized the upturn not the marketplace.

Now that the effects of the government subsidy have run their course, the market is back in control. And the market does not have confidence we have hit a true bottom. Nervous buyers and sellers do not create a great deal of confidence and lower prices are typically the result.

My bet is with the Pine River team. This year will be one of nerves and concern until the marketplace sees the strong potential of profits.

Hedge fund firm Pine River, which makes big bets on housing, is bracing for a double dip in that market, its chief executive officer said on Tuesday.

“There are still issues in the housing markets and it would not surprise us to see the recovery turn down,” Brian Taylor, who founded the $1.6 billion hedge fund eight years ago, said at the Reuters Private Equity and Hedge Funds Summit in New York.via Reuters

Warren Buffet Predicts Real Estate Rebound — In 2011

Warren BuffetIf the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, is correct the residential real estate market will rebound in 2011. Buffet, in his letter to Berkshire Hathaway stockholders, thinks that the demand curve will turn at that state and the residential markets will start to improve.

I am sure this news is not what real estate agents are hoping to hear, I tend to agree. The housing market still has way too much overhang from foreclosures and short sales for buyers to have confidence investing in homes. Add to that a nervous economy, it would be foolish to think that all will be okay this summer.

So real estate agents,  tighten that belt and continue to build your systems this year so you are ready for 2011.

“Within a year or so, residential housing problems should largely be behind us,” Buffett wrote Saturday in his annual letter to the shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway. “Prices will remain far below ‘bubble’ levels, of course, but for every seller or lender hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits. Indeed, many families that couldn’t afford to buy an appropriate home a few years ago now find it well within their means.”

Record foreclosures flooded a U.S. real estate market already glutted with unsold property, causing housing starts to fall.

“People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts — the supply side of the picture — were running about 2 million annually,” wrote Buffett, 79, chairman and CEO of Omaha-based Berkshire. “But household formations — the demand side — only amounted to about 1.2 million.”

Obama Looks To Stop ALL Foreclosures Without Government Review

KapowDo these people have a clue?

Are they trying to destroy the market?

Is there nothing that the government thinks that they can not fix?

(No, this is not an old Batman sitcom introduction, I am being dead serious.)

The Obama administration is looking to stop all foreclosures until they go through a review by the Home Affordable Modification Program. That is right, he is willing to destroy the mortgage market to protect a few and employee thousands of bureaucrats.

Guys, government is not always the answer. The markets need to find a footing, not be forever beholden to some faceless bureaucrat. I am dead serious here.

There is a cost everytime the government gets involved. If the housing market does not know the rules it can not correct. It will be stuck until investors and homebuyers have some confidence. All velocity will cease, as we see now with the lowest new home sales in 50 years this January.

Foreclosures are part of the fix. Sure it is a painful fix, but it is a necessary one. The markets need a foundation.

Our present governmental officials think they are the foundation.

They are sadly mistaken.

The proposal, reviewed by lenders last week on a White House conference call, “prohibits referral to foreclosure until borrower is evaluated and found ineligible for HAMP or reasonable contact efforts have failed,” according to a Treasury Department document outlining the plan.

“It is one of the many ideas under consideration in the administration’s ongoing housing stabilization efforts,” Treasury spokeswoman Meg Reilly said in an e-mail. “This proposal has not been approved and there are no immediate planned announcements on the issue.”

She confirmed the authenticity of the document, which hasn’t been made public.  via Bloomberg.com.

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