ECONOMIC REPORT
‘Prolonged’ recession, higher joblessness seen likely
NABE survey indicates most economists now believe U.S. recession’s started
By Mike Maynard, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:29 a.m. EST Nov. 17, 2008
Comments: 147
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. is in for a “prolonged” recession dragging into 2009, the National Association for Business Economics says.
In its latest survey, the organization sees a contraction in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product of 2.6% in the cards for the fourth quarter, with the weakness carrying well into next year. A separate survey by MarketWatch shows economists more pessimistic, expecting GDP to contract at a 3.5% pace in the fourth quarter.
With a small GDP contraction of 0.3% on the books for the 2008 third quarter, such a forecast would satisfy a widely held definition of the U.S. economy being in recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth — at the end of the year.
A total of 96% of the economists surveyed by NABE believe that a recession has begun.