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The quartly PMI numbers have come in measuring mortgage risk across the country and it is not looking good for the West Coast, Boston,  and Long Island. These regions are carrying the highest risk and greatest chance that mortgages could be in trouble. The range in ratio’s vary from the Top at San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA  with a score of 599 to the bottom Indianapolis-Carmel, IN and Pittsburgh, PA at 57.

The Top 10 (Most Dangerous) on the PMI index:

• San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA              599    
• Nassau-Suffolk, NY  (MSAD)                         589   
• Boston-Quincy, MA  (MSAD)                         588   
• Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA                        588
• Sacramento-Arden-Arcade- Roseville, CA       585
• Riverside-San Bernardino- Ontario, CA            583
• Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA                      582
• Los Angeles-Long Beach- Glendale, CA           575
• Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA    568
• San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA  560

Average was 278 for the Country.

And the Bottom (Safest) Ten Markets:

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX                                              71
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN                       69
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX                                           68
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH                                     65
Columbus, OH                                                            65
San Antonio, TX                                                         64
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN                            61
Memphis, TN-MS-AR                                               58
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN                                             57
Pittsburgh, PA                                                            57

The PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends (ERET) containing the US Market Risk Index is published quarterly by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE:PMI). The Risk Index is a proprietary statistical model that measures geographic house-price risk by predicting the probability of a regional decline in home prices in the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and metropolitan statistical area divisions (MSADs) over the next two years. The PMI US Market Risk Index is based on the House Price Index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the PMI affordability index, which uses local median household income, home price appreciation, and the price of a conventional mortgage to calculate the local share of mortgage payment to income relative to its baseline year of 1995.

The whole release at PMI U.S. Market Risk Index

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