The Housing Market – S&P Analyst Says Economy Not At Risk Of Recession
We all want to know what the effect of the housing slowdown will be on both the housing market and the economy as a whole. Of course, real estate is all local, but when it comes to the stock market it is seen as a national phenomenon. And listening to the commentators alternate between everything is fine and the world is falling apart it is hard to get ones bearings.
But then comes a great article by Sam Stovell of Standard and Poor who gives an analysis that is both as logical as it is practical. If you are interested in the national trends in real estate, read the whole article. It provides analysis both on today and the historical patterns of housing downturns.
Maybe the consensus expected the decline to be a lot worse than it will likely be. David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, has been forecasting for nearly a year that the slump in housing would subtract 1% from U.S. gross domestic product in 2007 and 2008. What’s more, Wyss thinks the median price for homes across the U.S. will decline 11% from the peak in 2005 to the projected trough during the first half of 2008, and that—as we are less than halfway there—things will get worse before they get better. via Business Week
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