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When the housing slowdown started in 2005, many in the San Francisco were expecting housing costs to drop significantly. But the odds of this are slim barring a huge depression as it is almost impossible to add to the housing inventory in the Bay area.

Here is a great example. Cargill, the Midwest conglomerate, owns 1433 acres on the San Francisco Bay in Redwood City. It has used the land for decades as a salt pond for harvesting salt for sale. They are in the midst of winding down the salt making operations and want to use the waterfront property as a housing development.

With high housing prices and a shortage of affordable housing, this would be a no brainer. But the odds of this project coming to fruition in the next couple of decades is slim to none. However the environmental lobby has already taken it up as a cause and has vowed to fight the development tooth and nail. With the weapons of generous state and federal environmental impact laws Cargill’s Redwood City development will be lucky to be started by 2027 if they have the stomach for the fight.

Even if 95 percent of the local population wanted the properties developed they would be no match for the activists and their slow moving courts.

Bruno wouldn’t specify the type of housing Cargill envisions nor what percentage of land the housing would occupy, but any development is opposed by groups such as Save the Bay. That group recently started a campaign to protect the last remaining undeveloped properties that ring the bay.
“It’s not the place to put housing,” said the group’s executive director, David Lewis. “If Cargill thinks this can be approved, they’re living in the past.”
Cargill’s Redwood City property is zoned “tidal plain,” meaning the corporation would have to get an exemption from the Redwood City Planning Commission to pursue any development.  via the SF Gate

So the San Francisco Bay area will have another tidal salt pond and even higher housing prices. Without any new inventory and San Francisco remaining a desirable place to live, how can anyone expect housing prices to fall in the long term. Not me.

Related posts:

1. San Francisco Bay Area Brain Drain As Prices Skyrocket
2. Lennar Converting San Francisco’s Hunter’s Point and Candlestick Point and San Francisco Into Housing Developments
3. San Francisco : Disneyland For Yuppies?
4. Canadian Questions Why Real Estate Commissions Remain So High
5. Santa Cruz - Housing Prices Drop From High