Is That Bouncing Sound I Hear The Bottom Of The Real Estate Market?
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According to Wellesley University professor and housing market guru Karl Case, that may very well be the situation we are seeing. The historical trends and demographics of new home starts and sales data are showing what has in the past 40 years show the bottom of the housing market.
Now, I profess to have all the knowledge that Karl Case has on this, and to be honest the housing index he is associated with, that Case Shiller thing that his partner is always shilling, I have never been a huge fan of. However, it seems like Robert Shiller is the poster child of talking the market down. Now Karl Case comes out of the shadows and tells us that the bottom is upon us.
I tend to listen to the quiet guy when he speaks.
Case is basing his optimism, which stands out in a sea of gloomy predictions, on a key economic indicator. It’s not the first time he’s courted controversy. Back when real estate prices were headed skyward, Case was a lone voice predicting a painful real estate downturn.
“Every single time we have gotten to this point, at this time, almost to the exact decimal point, things start to rebound,” Case said.
According to Case, the decline in housing starts nationally has reached a key threshold, dropping below the 1 million mark last month.
Over the past 30 years, this has signaled the end of a real estate market downturn. Housing construction rebounded sharply in the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s after reaching this low point, Case said. via the BostonHerald.com
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Pingback by Optimistic Investors Finding Deals In San Francisco — The Real Estate Bloggers on 9 May 2008:
[...] ← Is That Bouncing Sound I Hear The Bottom Of The Real Estate Market? [...]
Comment by tglennon on 9 May 2008:
No, the sounds you hear are the bodies bouncing off the parapets as they make their way to the real bottom. 30 years of data of which none reflects upon the current crisis in housing, the situation we are in is way beyond the norm. The piper must be paid.
Comment by Mike on 15 May 2008:
It sounds to me like he is saying the decline in HOUSING STARTS should turn around. That has NOTHING to do with prices stabilizing. In fact, if you look back to 1990-1991 you see the starts bottoming but prices did not start back up until 1995-1996. That is a huge time lag…
Pingback by Case Shiller Shows 15.4 Decline in 2nd Quarter, 2008 : The Real Estate Bloggers on 26 August 2008:
[...] This analysis is consistent with what Karl Case (The Case in Case Shiller) said in May. [...]