Harvard Housing Study Predicts More Pain For Housing Markets
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A Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies predicts the housing slump will be prolonged and that it is the worst since the Great Depression. The report expects that a weak job market will push homeowners on the edge into foreclosure and keep buyers away.
There are some good points to the study but I truly think that we have seen the worst. We will probably never see the loose credit that fueled the housing market to overbuild, but as prices come into the realm of buyers feeling like they have a deal, deals will be made.
The center releases its “State of the Nation’s Housing” report each year and the 2008 edition gave a grim prognosis for housing markets throughout the country.
Local markets are dealing with drops in housing starts, new-home sales and existing-home sales — corrections that are rivaling the deepest slowdowns since the World War II era, the center reported. On top of that, the fall in home prices and the rise in mortgage defaults are the worst on record since the 1960s and 1970s. All this adds up to a downturn that is “the most severe that we have seen,” said Mr. Retsinas. via WSJ.com.
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Comment by Mark McGlothlin on 25 June 2008:
My team and I have plowed through the Harvard data too (yawn, but they do have very nice graphics). We find the most interesting aspect of the recent CSI and Harvard statements to be the media reaction to them. Doom and gloom is the word of the day, though our research confirms there are markets around the country with surprisingly sound fundamentals even in these “dark days”. Our advice - take a deep breath, roll up your sleeves, and do some digging to find the strong markets among the sea of weak ones.
Comment by Caleb Mardini on 25 June 2008:
The problem is much deeper than that of deals IMHO. One major factor that will not let up is the simple fact that the credit markets won’t be available for any sort of “turn around” for some time.