Canada has been riding a nice wave compared to it’s neighbors to the south. The combination of a strong loonie and an oil boom in it’s western provinces has kept a decade long housing boom strong.

But according to experts from the UBC Sauder School of Business the Canadian housing market is heading for a correction. Like the United States housing boom, most of the country will be fine, but certain urban centers will be facing declines in the 20 percent range.

Add to the potential of a weaker loonie as the dollar strengthens and lower energy prices the Canadian economy may soon experience a rougher time.

The study warned that the potential for price declines is greatest in cities that have a large supply of unsold inventory or a mismatch between the number of units and the number of households ready to occupy them.

Somerville concluded that only in Toronto are prices in balance with rents. In Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Regina and Winnipeg prices would need to drop by at least 20 per cent to be in balance, while Calgary and Vancouver would require a 7 to 11 per cent drop in prices to reach the study’s equilibrium level. But the study found in Edmonton prices are actually below equilibrium, by 8 per cent

But the study also found Canada’s more conservative lending practices have prevented the speculative excess and severe downturn experienced in U.S. markets. via cbc

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