Think USA Had a Real Estate Bubble, Check Out India

IndiahousingWe are worried about the state of real estate and banking stocks traded on our exchanges, but our concerns are nothing compared to what happened Friday in India.

In one day the BSE Realty stock index fell 24%. One of the main stocks, Unitech dropped over 50%. The concerns in India are not that there is just underlying weakness in the market but that they have not been honest with shareholders and regulators.

So while we have worries, India has a meltdown on their hands.

Real estate stocks fell like nine pins on Friday as investors panicked and jettisoned their stocks at whatever price the markets gave them. Amidst free fall in the markets, stock prices of Unitech halved and settled at Rs 30.10 with a loss of 51.29%, unforeseen for a Nifty stock in a single day earlier.
The stock lost around 91% of its value from its peak price of Rs 547 that was seen during January 2008. Among realty stocks, Puravankara Projects, DLF, Orbit Corporation, Parsvnath Developers and Phoenix Mills had taken larger beating and these stocks were down more than 20%. Even the BSE realty index fell by 24% in a day. The markets on Friday disappointed after the Reserve Bank of India kept its key rates unchanged in its credit policy.  via The Times of India

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There Are 4 Responses So Far. »

  1. The real estate bubble is international right now. Next year we will see Canada pop even though al of them are saying their banking system is better system then us their stupic Americans.

  2. [...] Think USA Had a Real Estate Bubble, Check Out India – The Real Estate Bloggers – 26 October 08 We are worried about the state of real estate and banking stocks traded on our exchanges, but our concerns are nothing compared to what happened Friday in India. [...]

  3. Indian Real Estate Market had seen lack of buying interest from last quarter to 2007. Throught 2008, Indian Builders hung on to high price. They have been too sluggish to react to the market.

    Builders are like middle aged women. It takes a woman courageous effort, to come to terms with the harsh reality of aging. You can continue to live in a make believe world for months or even couple of years?but natural aging just can’t be stopped.

    Those who read the signals and adjust their lifestyle, carry on with minimal impact, on their lives. Those who refuse to read signals and adjust lifestyle, end up in medical care.

    90% of women are smart enough to admirably adjust and are prepared well in advance. (Salutes to women on Women’s Day!!). However, more than 90% of the builders react sluggishly to realities of the market which could affect, if not personal but definitely their financial health.

    In a booming market, builders were quick to react by resetting prices upward, every week. The possibility of making larger profits drove them to be extra alert! When market trend shows negativity, it is rightly expected that the same builders would be quick to act, to cut losses. After all, cutting losses is MORE IMPORTANT than making quicker profit. (In boom, whether one reacts quickly or not, there is profit, always. Its only the quantity of profit that varies. But in a sliding market, money gets burned. And that could be deadly)

    And this is exactly where builders have gone, dreadfully wrong. Even now, many are in a “make believe world”. Comforting themselves, with grandiose vision of early boom! Unfortunately, they are unaware that they are shooting themselves in the leg. And soon, the self inflicted injuries may aggravate.

    Cutting losses by aggressive pricing in anticipation of worsening market, should have been the mantra 9 to 12 months ago. But the opportunity was lost due to the blind belief that boom is perpetual and negative trend, a flash in the pan. Builders offered small cuts from August 08 onwards which had absolutely no impact.

    There were opportunities as late as September 08 to offer aggressive pricing and convert leads to Sales. But once the negative trend firmed into solid slide, NOTHING could work. Its only in December 08, after a whole year and a half of negativity, that few builders started to react with larger cuts. But the horses had bolted in September 08 itself. And builders who reacted late, know that the stable is empty.

    For the smarter builders, the market has indeed given an opportunity to prepare itself for the future. Those who have learned the lesson that procrastination will cause misery, may be quick to act during a slide, after the next boom!

    David at http://www.exclventures.com

  4. India has its own problems… with monsoon failure and the IT industries depending most on the US markets I think the real estate revival is going to take a lot of time.

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