The rise in foreclosures and short sales has increased home sales. But in doing so, the quality of homes being sold and the lower prices are driving the Case Shiller Index down at a rapid pace. Scary rapid pace if you read the newspapers.

But in doing my analysis this morning, the number that is getting me scared is the 2 year average. Nearly all of the markets are down double digits over 2 years and some are approaching being down 50 percent. Wow. A 50 percent haircut not from the top, but from only 2 years. That would explain the incredible velocity of foreclosures as homeowners in the hardest hit regions have to be giving up.

At this stage of my monthly Case Shiller post I try to find the positive nugget in the data. But there really isn’t one right now, the positive is the velocity of home sales. Hopefully the sales in the hardest hit states will suck up enough inventory and a base can form. My fear is that with each set of Case Shiller numbers that come out, more people will just say screw it and bail on their homes.

Let us hope this is not the case.

Case Shiller December 2008 Report

Metro Area      Jan-09  Dec08-Jan09   Jan08-Jan09    Jan07-Jan09

Phoenix         117.11     -5.5%        -35.0%          -46.8%
Los Angeles     166.54     -2.8%        -25.8%          -38.0%
San Diego       148.25     -2.6%        -24.9%          -37.5%
San Francisco   124.33     -4.4%        -32.4%          -41.3%
Denver          122.33     -2.7%        -05.1%          -10.0%
Washington      171.97     -2.0%        -19.3%          -28.0%
Miami           159.04     -3.6%        -29.4%          -43.1%
Tampa           149.21     -4.4%        -23.3%          -34.8%
Atlanta         109.44     -3.2%        -14.3%          -18.0%
Chicago         130.80     -4.6%        -16.4%          -21.9%
Boston          150.73     -1.5%        -07.3%          -10.4%
Detroit          77.56     -4.2%        -22.6%          -34.2%
Minneapolis     120.18     -4.7%        -20.4%          -28.4%
Charlotte       120.91     -1.2%        -08.2%          -06.6%
Las Vegas       125.64     -4.4%        -32.5%          -45.5%
New York        181.28     -1.2%        -09.6%          -14.8%
Cleveland       102.89     -2.2%        -05.2%          -13.3%
Portland        153.80     -3.0%        -14.0%          -14.5%
Dallas          112.75     -2.4%        -04.9%          -08.1%
Seattle         154.37     -3.6%        -15.0%          -16.1%
Composite-10    158.04     -2.3%        -19.2%          -28.6%
Composite-20    146.40     -2.5%        -19.4%          -27.6%

Related posts:

1. Case Shiller December 2008 Report Shows Consistent Declines
2. Case Shiller November 2008 Report Shows Consistent Declines in Major Cities
3. Case Shiller Report For May 2009 – Real Estate Looking Better
4. Case Shiller Report For February 2009 Bleeds Red, Phoenix Down 50%
5. Case Shiller Report For September 2009