Trillion Dollars of Commercial Real Estate Loans Coming Due?
From 2010 to 2013 about 1,000,000,000,000 dollars of commercial real estate loans are coming due. For those of you who are numerically challenged, this is 1 trillion dollars. Not a million, not a billion, a trillion dollars. A thousand billion or a hundred thousand million dollars.
Some of this money should roll over, but there is a great deal of securitized commercial loans that will not be renewed. What will these developers do?
That is the question that should keep anyone involved in commercial real estate up at night.
And the most dangerous time for banks will be 2010 to 2013 when $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans will mature and — like homeowners before them — owners of commercial properties will need to refinance.
Blumberg estimates that $236 billion in commercial real estate loans that were turned into securities will need to be refinanced in this period and that $67 billion of that amount “will be lost.”
“We are on the brink of one of the worst commercial real estate financing markets ever,” he said. via New York Post.
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Great to hear that the big boys
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most think.
Thanks for the value! 
I agree--good analogy. You have to crawl before you can walk. Right now, at least in Austin, many people would ...
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Comment by Jeff on 21 May 2009:
Wow… it should be interesting to see how that turns out.
Comment by Alex on 21 May 2009:
It is anticipated that a significant portion of these loans facing major balloon risk will be restructured through bankruptcy. After that, lenders might start easing up on their terms and circumvent the lawyers. Beyond that, many will fail and simply close up shop leaving their creditors high and dry. Opportunity funds may play a big role in recovering from this.
Comment by Robert Unusual Loans on 22 May 2009:
This is good and bad. Good for investors looking for long term investments bad for the overall value of CRE.
Comment by CRE Unusual Loans on 22 May 2009:
I wish I had some serous money to buy up the great deals
Comment by Brandon on 22 May 2009:
Wow. That coul be one heckuva big default!
Comment by Portland Real Estate on 22 May 2009:
It was a terrible system in the first place, it does not surprise me in the slightest that there is going to be some backlash over this.
Pingback by Boston Real Estate Blog : Blog Archive : Commercial Real Estate - Outlook Dim on 23 May 2009:
[...] Source: NY Post via Real Estate Bloggers [...]
Comment by Who's Numerically Challenged? on 17 February 2010:
, this is 1 trillion dollars. Not a million, not a billion, a trillion dollars. A thousand billion or a hundred thousand million dollars.
Really? one hundred thousand million is a trillion? not according to my calculator…….