If you are a commercial investor odds are you are a bit shell shocked coming into the end of 2009. The marketplace is tough, the property values are a glimmer of what they once were, and let’s not even talk about rents.

But there is good news for some of the markets out there. The need for office space has never been higher in Washington DC as government expansion has sucked up every square foot in the city and surrounding areas. Austin is benefiting for the exodus out of high tax and nearly bankrupt California, while Boston, New York, and San Francisco maintain their places near the top due mainly to past glory.

Top 10 Commercial Real Estate Markets For 2010

Washington D.C. scores the highest marks during a recession.  While hard-pressed lenders pull back in most cities, major insurers and big banks have taken a long term view and are actually providing financing for new deals.  Bethesda, home to the National Institutes of Health, should benefit from increased bio-medical spending and Virginia markets, inside the Beltway, are expected to suffer only modest erosion relative to past downturns. Survey respondents expect suburban vacancies to advance well into the high teens further out.  

San Francisco. Despite its formidable barrier to entry attributes, this 24-hour gateway will take investors on a ride of volatile pricing, occupancies, and rents.  An expanding regional tech industry, fed by nearby Silicon Valley, should help.  The report ranks this city one of the top buys for apartments, warehouse, office and hotels.  

Austin. A Texas growth bastion, Austin’s low state taxes and a pro business environment are expected to contribute to future growth and continuing corporate relocations.  Austin fits the “brainpower” model with its state capital, large state university, and offshoot tech and software businesses.   

Boston is a solid market as compelling economic drivers—premier educational institutions, life science companies, and high tech business—reinforce investors’ long-term conviction.  Downtown apartment vacancies remain well under 10 percent and condo/house pricing “remains stiff.”  

New York offers savvy investors opportunity and more affordable costs over the long term.  Midtown availability rates are predicted to skyrocket from mid single digits into the mid-teens as office rents plummet 40 percent or more.  Co-op pricing is expected to sink 25 percent and a shakeout continues among condo developers who built million dollar plus apartments in fringe districts— sales of those units likely won’t close without substantial markdowns.  The pace of market recovery depends on the hammered banking industry, the report cites. 

The rest of the Top 10

• Houston 
• Seattle. 
• Raleigh/Durham 
• Denver 
• San Jose

via the Urban Land Institute

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