The head of Fannie Mae is predicting a slow real estate market spanning through 2009 as indicators such as the Case Shiller report as showing even greater weakness in the market. Daniel Mudd predicts the slowdown lasting longer than many other prognosticators, but interesting enough recognizes that he is guessing as forecasting housing is not an easy job.
This is a great point. We all would love to know the date of the turnaround. But the complex formula of consumer sentiment, finances, macro economics, local economics, and government fiscal policies will make it very hard to determine when and where the bottom will be. Add to that different local and socioeconomic groups may react differently to market conditions you have to remember the classic adage.
All real estate is local.
So before you get all bothered by this report, watch the indicators. The best example of this are the charts that are on Doug Quance’s site for the different towns in Atlanta. Some are showing increases over the past couple of months of 10 percent while others right next door are showing declines. If you did not know any better you never would know all these communities were in one metro region!
“We think at Fannie Mae that ’08 is going to be a tough year, kind of a continuation of the end of 2007; ’09 will be similar,” said Daniel Mudd, the company’s president and chief executive, who spoke at a business journalism conference in Baltimore.
Fannie Mae, which buys and repackages loans to sell to investors, claims about half the market for newly issued securities backed by single-family homes.
Forecasting the bottom of the housing slump is a tricky business, with the many conflicting predictions by economists as proof, he added. He said he has seen recent improvement in the capital markets, which play an important role in the mortgage products and rates that borrowers can get, but a housing-price index released yesterday showed accelerating declines across the largest metro areas. via the baltimoresun.com
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