OFF TOPIC: Don’t Mess With Granny

I've been selling real estate the past 7 years and have been quite successful, that is until last June. I primarily marketed a northern suburb of Minneapolis which has experienced tremendous growth in the past 10 years.

Frankly, it's over. The housing market has officially crashed. Here are some recent sold statistics for the area I market:

March thru June 15

(2004) Sold 172 units

(2005) Sold 216 units

(2006) Sold 168 units

(2007) Sold 53 units (350 active listings)

During this same timeframe only 17 new construction listings have been sold. Of these, 6 of them were bank owned. Currently, there are approx. 130 active new construction listings.

Ok, so the housing bubble has popped; what does that mean for the average person? First, we are losing the largest manufacturing industry in the U.S. You will begin to see unemployment tick up, but many of these jobs were under the table. Meaning, the skilled workers were being paid cash. These individuals will not be able to file for unemployment. The loss of these jobs will bubble up over the next 1-2 years and will surface on the bottom lines of retailers like Home Depot and Lowes.

Second, as prices fall, home equity loans will be a thing of the past. Falling home prices are the single leading factor in the bubble burst. Prices started falling well before foreclosures were an issue. My estimation is prices began to fall in early 2005. Homes prices have now retreated to 2003-04 levels. Meaning a home that sold in 2005 for $250,000 is now selling for $220,000 (as long as it’s in perfect condition). Homeowners’ getting over their heads financially is nothing new; however; the difference now is they can’t just sell their house, because they owe more than it’s worth. I turned away 20+ listings this year due to homeowners being upside down on their mortgages. As a result, they are walking away and letting the banks foreclose on them. As more and more foreclosures (up 90% from last year) hit the market home prices will continue to be pressured downward. Before it’s over (if things don’t spin totally out of control) we will see price levels equal to the year 2000…Approximately, a 20% decrease in prices.

Now, you may say, “great, I can’t sell my house for what I owe on it. I will just stay and wait for the market to turn. I have a good job and can get use to the idea of staying in my home a little longer. This problem doesn’t really affect me.” Wrong, as more and more homeowners are unable to tap into their homes equity they will no longer be buying cars, 4 wheelers, big screen t.v.’s, computers, lawn tractors, updating kitchens, roofs or siding etc. Millions and millions of homeowners will be putting off discretionary spending out of necessity. This will result in a tremendous fallout in the retail sector of our economy, which in turn, will have a direct effect on the transportation and manufacturing industries. Many jobs will be lost and many more homes foreclosed.

Finally, as the housing market crashes, so does the tax roll of state, county and local governments. These institutions have built their budgets on the back of the housing surge during the past ten years. It will not be unheard of to see local governments going bankrupt, schools shutting down, police departments with skeleton crews and social programs slashed. You will quite literally see ghost towns, large developments with empty Mcmansions, because it made more sense to walk away than pay the exorbitant property tax.

Sounds depressing doesn’t it. Well, history shows that it will be depressing. This is exactly what happened before the stock market crash that lead to the Great Depression.