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Residential Real Estate Depressed Till 2013 – Yikes

Scared-fearAccording to the projections Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow gave to Inman News this week, we may not see a recovery in residential real estate until 2013. That is a 7 year dip from the highs in 2006 my friends.

When the bubble burst, we all figured that we would be out of the woods in 2008, worst case spring 2009. The real pessimists though that by at least 2010 it would be over. Historically, 2010 would be an outlier, right?

Now experts are pushing the recovery out till 2013 due to the foreclosure overhang and economic forces.

Normally I do not tell agents and brokers how to handle their business but today I will. Live tightly. Keep driving efficiencies. Don’t spend like a fool to get ahead of your competition yet. The wave of pain could be 3 or more years ahead.

Brokers and agents should keep investing in relationships and the tools that will drive those relationships in the future while maintaining a share of business today.

There are a lot of brokerages that are hanging on with white knuckles waiting for the housing recession to end. My thoughts are with these firms, it is a rough ride for all involved.

While home sales likely reached the bottom of the current cycle last year, home values in many markets are still in decline, said Stan Humphries, chief economist for online real estate search and information company Zillow.

“The housing recession is not over: Housing prices continue to fall,” Humphries said. And housing demand may not see a normal balance with new household formation and housing starts until 2013, said Doug Duncan, chief economist for secondary mortgage giant Fannie Mae.

The “overhang or shadow supply” of housing inventory has a lot to do with the drawn-out recovery for the housing market, he noted.

Home and rental unit vacancy rates are running about 2 million units above normal levels, Duncan said. His forecast calls for home prices to continue to fall this year, perhaps 1 percent to 3 percent more, and hit bottom in the third quarter. via Inman News


  1. I have been hearing the same predictions from other, unrelated sources. I guess its time to hunker down and weather the storm for a bit longer.

  2. It's sad to hear but I am still positive that somehow we will overcome problems like this.

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