When you look back at this period of real estate history in the United States you will have to wonder how we kept our sanity. The picture of the stockbroker jumping out of the window is the image from the Great Depression. What will be the image of the Real Estate agent who went through the housing boom and then the losses we are looking at today.
The Case Shiller report for February, 2009 is out and the month over month numbers are ugly across the board, the year over year numbers are scary in many of the markets, but the numbers I dug up from the data is really freaky.
From July, 2006 (the peak of the market numerically) we have 6 major markets down more than 40 percent with Phoenix being down over 50%. With Tampa and Detroit hovering just under the 40 percent line and Washington and Minneapolis down around 30 percent, we have just seen a bubble burst.
Some have been calling a bottom now for a while, I came close a couple of times, but when do you think it will happen? And will it occur before or after inflation starts running rampant devaluing the homes even more?
Metro Area Feb09 Jan09-Feb09 Feb08-09 Jul06-Feb09 Atlanta 106.65 -2.50% -15.30% 20.94% Boston 148.77 -1.30% - 7.20% 16.32% Charlotte 118.94 -1.60% - 9.40% 7.05% Chicago 126.3 -3.40% -17.60% 24.63% Cleveland 97.76 -5.00% - 8.50% 20.84% Dallas 112.39 -0.30% - 4.50% 10.35% Denver 120.22 -1.70% - 5.70% 14.29% Detroit 74.6 -3.80% -23.60% 39.47% Las Vegas 121.06 -3.60% -31.70% 48.33% Los Angeles 163.16 -2.00% -24.10% 40.42% Miami 154.28 -3.00% -29.50% 44.57% Minneapolis 116.39 -3.10% -20.30% 31.83% New York 178.16 -1.60% -10.20% 17.23% Phoenix 111.89 -4.50% -35.20% 50.79% Portland 150.88 -1.90% -14.40% 16.02% San Diego 146.82 -1.00% -22.90% 41.05% San Francisco 120.39 -3.30% -31.00% 44.68% Seattle 152.12 -1.50% -15.40% 15.47% Tampa 145.25 -2.70% -23.00% 38.99% Washington 168.02 -2.30% -19.20% 32.77%
Full Case Shiller Report
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These are very interesting numbers. They almost tell us we are not at the bottom yet. It is easy for all of us "real estate experts" to say we have finally reached the bottom, however when numbers like these continue to print out, it really makes you wonder.
We can hope for the bottom, but there is no telling yet if we have hit it or not. Even if it does not last, I really am enjoying the nice uptick in business now that spring weather has hit and people want to go look at houses.
Wow! When you move past Detroit you are bleeding Red. Phoenix has always been a boom and bust market. The next swing (hopefully) will bring you back. However, this is truly a unique market to push through.
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